Wednesday, March 25, 2009

it's the end of the world as we know it

The Economist reporta que la movida 2.0 está a punto de replicar la burbuja del 95-01, por la supuesta ausencia de publicidad para sustentar el modelo de negocios gratuito al usuario final.

Chris Anderson, Editor de Wired y autor de The Long Tail, escribió una refutación que me gustó mucho:

To the Editor,
As a former Economist technology writer, I understand the attractions of “simplify, then exaggerate”. But in the case of your article on freeconomics, you have done a bit too much of both.
First, where is your evidence that online advertising is a failing model? To be sure, the crisis has dramatically slowed its growth (like that of every other industry) but unlike most others, it’s still positive. The worst forecasts for the year that I’ve seen predict that it may drop by a few percent from last year’s record figure. That’s a lot better than the offline advertising market and hardly supports your hyperbolic claim that “the demise of a popular but unsustainable business model now seems inevitable.”
Second, there is more to free business models online than advertising. The big shift since the crises has been the rise of “freemium” (free+premium) models, where products and services are offered in free basic and paid premium versions. Think Flickr and Flicker Pro (more storage), virtually all online games and even your own site (some free and some paid content).
Finally, your scorn blinds you to the fact that this crazy idea of giving away content for free and supporting it by advertising is nearly a hundred years old. It is the basis of the standard radio and television broadcast model (“free to air” content) and countless other companies, from the free daily and weekly newspapers to the vast majority of media websites, including all of our own at Conde Nast. It works great—The Economist should try it!
Regards,
Chris Anderson
Editor in Chief, Wired Magazine and author of the forthcoming “Free: The Future of a Radical Price”

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Blogger Andy W said...

The phrase The Long Tail (as a proper noun) was first coined by Chris Anderson in an October 2004 Wired magazine article to describe the niche strategy of businesses, such as Amazon.com or Netflix, that sell a large number of unique items, each in relatively small quantities. Anderson elaborated the Long Tail concept in his book The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business Is Selling Less of More.

A frequency distribution with a long tail — the concept at the root of Anderson's coinage — has been studied by statisticians since at least 1946. The distribution and inventory costs of these businesses allow them to realize significant profit out of selling small volumes of hard-to-find items to many customers, instead of only selling large volumes of a reduced number of popular items. The group that purchases a large number of "non-hit" items is the demographic called the Long Tail.

25/3/09 2:16 PM  

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